BharatPremi
03-13 12:23 PM
I seriously hope that this is correct even though it doesn't apply to me : (
Anyway, IIRC, in past there have been incidences where VB posted in mumbai Consulate's website actually did not turn out to be true. Couple of years back - after the retrogression - it predicted huge forward movement which 2 days later turned out to be false hope...
so keep your fingers crossed...
: )
That is exactly I was thinking. My first confusion was why the hell people want to check CP dates and create the false thread but then I realize they must not be around/ in the process to realize that CP dates != AOS dates. Some times CP ones equals but not always. Let's hope those equals to AOS dats this time.
Anyway, IIRC, in past there have been incidences where VB posted in mumbai Consulate's website actually did not turn out to be true. Couple of years back - after the retrogression - it predicted huge forward movement which 2 days later turned out to be false hope...
so keep your fingers crossed...
: )
That is exactly I was thinking. My first confusion was why the hell people want to check CP dates and create the false thread but then I realize they must not be around/ in the process to realize that CP dates != AOS dates. Some times CP ones equals but not always. Let's hope those equals to AOS dats this time.
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swamy
11-20 07:44 PM
I am still debating whether to call in or to write - but I will definitely do one of the two. I just read the other thread linked to by 'internet' above & thought I would say a couple of things to the losers at alipac who worship racists like tancredo and lou: Don't distort this thread's message - we not are trying to gag Mr.Lou however much I puke everytime I see him spewing venow on 'aliens' -and I sometimes even admire his constant state of outrage and complete lack of shame. He and his worshippers at alipac are a reminder that bigotry may have been outlawed offcially in the 60's but definitely wasn't completely eliminated for posterity -a lesson to all those who forget history and think we have always been 'civilized'; we are the nation we are today because of the tireless work of so many great leaders supported by so many forward thinking Americans of all colors -so lets be clear - we WANT LOU to spew his venom and unvarnished bigotry in Detroit - we WANT alipac to worship such hatemongers so when youngsters wonder how people could have been done horrible acts in the past we can point to you guys and say 'here you go - now know that every generation has its bigots and its the duty of decent folks to oppose them - its a constant never ending fight!'
sam_hoosier
11-26 04:04 PM
After talking to my lawyer, I have decided to forego my H1B renewal and instead move to EAD. This allows me the flexibility to move to better roles with my current employer, as well as other employers.
As has been mentioned on some other threads, the most common reasons for your I-485 denial (fraud, out of status, communicable disease, criminal or felon etc.) would probably also mean that you are ineligible for an H1B too. As long as you are confident that you do not fall into any of these categories, the risk is very minimal.
As has been mentioned on some other threads, the most common reasons for your I-485 denial (fraud, out of status, communicable disease, criminal or felon etc.) would probably also mean that you are ineligible for an H1B too. As long as you are confident that you do not fall into any of these categories, the risk is very minimal.
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nojoke
10-09 04:54 PM
Before I go any further, please read my disclaimer. The views are soley directed towards local market I am aware of and interests in i.e. GMADA ( Punjab/ Chandigarh area) and in no-way should my views/ opionion be applied to flats in Bombay/ Banglore or Hyd etc. With that said, hear me out.
Their is and last year I first hand expereienced massive infrastrucutral development going on in Delhi as well as in Chandigarh/ Punjab area. Their are supposed to be some Asian or Commonwealth games to happen in 2010. In addition to that, for some great reasons it appears the states closer to national capital had been lacking in basic infrastructural development. Can you believe Bombay-Pune highway is in better conditions than Ludhiana- Delhi, National Highway #1!. FYI: NH-1, is India's historically first highway criss-corssing the country from West to East. So they are playing the catchup game.
With improved basic infrastructure, living and commuting from satillite cities has become much easier than it was 10 yrs ago. Just like sub-urbs here, people want to enjoy life-style that is un-affordable in city centers. The NRI spending clout has wanned in recent years due to rapid development and growth in India. So the babus, politcians, industrialists, cops, Rich middle-class etc are coming in and taking away most of the RE. In addition to that, the basic infrastrucutral development funded by Government is giving a lot of monies to people whose farming land is being acquired to setup airport or industrial/ residentail sectors. These recently cash-rich farmers are not investing back in buying adjoining farm land but also investing in urban properties. You won't believe, but people were compensated quarter million per acre for recent Mohali/ Chd airport expansion. On top of all this, they ever growing population and shrinking available land is organically raising the prices.
With all that going, why would you think RE investment would fail? Plus remember the age-old adage "... Land never fails you." Jats do it!
Your theory that land values never fall in india is not true. Here is the proof. It is a question of affordability. Even if the population explodes and since most of them are poor, there is no justification for such high price appreciation we had in the last 5 years.
http://www.ciol.com/content/news/2006/106042710.asp
-------------------------------------------------------------
�From the peak level, prices started plummeting in 1995. Between 1995 and 2000, the property bubble built on speculations burst and prices declined by almost 30�40 per cent all across India, including Bangalore. There was a slight recovery in 1999-2000 period, riding on the dotcom boom.�
Their is and last year I first hand expereienced massive infrastrucutral development going on in Delhi as well as in Chandigarh/ Punjab area. Their are supposed to be some Asian or Commonwealth games to happen in 2010. In addition to that, for some great reasons it appears the states closer to national capital had been lacking in basic infrastructural development. Can you believe Bombay-Pune highway is in better conditions than Ludhiana- Delhi, National Highway #1!. FYI: NH-1, is India's historically first highway criss-corssing the country from West to East. So they are playing the catchup game.
With improved basic infrastructure, living and commuting from satillite cities has become much easier than it was 10 yrs ago. Just like sub-urbs here, people want to enjoy life-style that is un-affordable in city centers. The NRI spending clout has wanned in recent years due to rapid development and growth in India. So the babus, politcians, industrialists, cops, Rich middle-class etc are coming in and taking away most of the RE. In addition to that, the basic infrastrucutral development funded by Government is giving a lot of monies to people whose farming land is being acquired to setup airport or industrial/ residentail sectors. These recently cash-rich farmers are not investing back in buying adjoining farm land but also investing in urban properties. You won't believe, but people were compensated quarter million per acre for recent Mohali/ Chd airport expansion. On top of all this, they ever growing population and shrinking available land is organically raising the prices.
With all that going, why would you think RE investment would fail? Plus remember the age-old adage "... Land never fails you." Jats do it!
Your theory that land values never fall in india is not true. Here is the proof. It is a question of affordability. Even if the population explodes and since most of them are poor, there is no justification for such high price appreciation we had in the last 5 years.
http://www.ciol.com/content/news/2006/106042710.asp
-------------------------------------------------------------
�From the peak level, prices started plummeting in 1995. Between 1995 and 2000, the property bubble built on speculations burst and prices declined by almost 30�40 per cent all across India, including Bangalore. There was a slight recovery in 1999-2000 period, riding on the dotcom boom.�
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whoever
02-07 04:51 PM
can someone draft a template like the nurses letter to congress for us with subject "Please provider retrogression relief for Employment Based Immigrants." and the body of the letter with the provisions and proposals including "recapture of unused visas". I feel the nurses will deplete our unused visas by recapturing unused ones several times and we may not have that option anymore.
lacrossegc
12-02 12:41 AM
you would probably not want to advertise that .... anti's usually have trolls out to get this info. state chapters should be the route to go on this.
I suppose it would help if IV core team would discuss with members about their target contribution and percentage of goal being met. i know it might not be possible to give out the extact numbers but we can always have a percentage % on the site showing how much more is needed. This will also energize active and non active members and give them something definite to work towards..
Just my two cents!!!!
I suppose it would help if IV core team would discuss with members about their target contribution and percentage of goal being met. i know it might not be possible to give out the extact numbers but we can always have a percentage % on the site showing how much more is needed. This will also energize active and non active members and give them something definite to work towards..
Just my two cents!!!!
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neelu
10-30 02:17 AM
Hello friends,
We finally got CPO emails 10/28/2009 (only checked last evening), 11 years after first stepping foot on this land. My story is very much like those that others have posted, so I will not say more.
But I would like to go over what I did since October 1st (which is when my PD became current). Most of us on this forum know a little something about waiting for our PDs to be current or for some legislation to happen. But what I learnt in October is that once your PD becomes current, you go from one opaque waiting area to another one. The case status website does not have any useful info. May be we (IV) should work to get USCIS to add some real status information there (like if our case is assigned to an IO etc.). Anyway, these are what I did:
1) I had called NSC using the POJ method on 10/9/2009. But did not get any useful info.
2) I had called again on 10/13/2009 and this time a very friendly and I think very knowledgeable IO put me on hold for 5 mins - when she returned she told me that my case (and my wife's) was shelved because they thought that our finger prints were not done. But she said that she thinks they are all there and that she would make a request for the case to be assigned to an IO for adjdication.
3) On 10/21/2009, I called up my senator's office and requested them to open an inquiry. A couple of days later I got a reply from the senators office which included the response from USCIS - the USCIS response was practically useless asking me to wait 90 days.
4) On 10/28/2009, I got the CPO email.
Frankly, I dont know what helped, if anything at all did. The only thing I think that helped me is the support that I got from folks on this forum. You guys are a fabulous bunch.
Like others who have posted, I have been closely involved with IV since May 2006 and plan on keeping it that way going forward (cannot NOT check IV at least once a day :D). Go IV!!!!!
Please let me know if you want any specific information about my case/experience that can help in your case.
Wishing the best of luck for everyone waiting....
~Neelu
We finally got CPO emails 10/28/2009 (only checked last evening), 11 years after first stepping foot on this land. My story is very much like those that others have posted, so I will not say more.
But I would like to go over what I did since October 1st (which is when my PD became current). Most of us on this forum know a little something about waiting for our PDs to be current or for some legislation to happen. But what I learnt in October is that once your PD becomes current, you go from one opaque waiting area to another one. The case status website does not have any useful info. May be we (IV) should work to get USCIS to add some real status information there (like if our case is assigned to an IO etc.). Anyway, these are what I did:
1) I had called NSC using the POJ method on 10/9/2009. But did not get any useful info.
2) I had called again on 10/13/2009 and this time a very friendly and I think very knowledgeable IO put me on hold for 5 mins - when she returned she told me that my case (and my wife's) was shelved because they thought that our finger prints were not done. But she said that she thinks they are all there and that she would make a request for the case to be assigned to an IO for adjdication.
3) On 10/21/2009, I called up my senator's office and requested them to open an inquiry. A couple of days later I got a reply from the senators office which included the response from USCIS - the USCIS response was practically useless asking me to wait 90 days.
4) On 10/28/2009, I got the CPO email.
Frankly, I dont know what helped, if anything at all did. The only thing I think that helped me is the support that I got from folks on this forum. You guys are a fabulous bunch.
Like others who have posted, I have been closely involved with IV since May 2006 and plan on keeping it that way going forward (cannot NOT check IV at least once a day :D). Go IV!!!!!
Please let me know if you want any specific information about my case/experience that can help in your case.
Wishing the best of luck for everyone waiting....
~Neelu
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funny
10-08 12:51 PM
http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=tough-days-ahead-indian-real-estate-market
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abqguy
01-31 11:37 AM
Hopefully, this question will be picked for the debate.
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Sideliner
07-16 10:44 AM
Please stop the spread of incorrect information, designed to create hatred on high skilled immigrants.
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sbindval
07-19 02:36 PM
Aman,
You are an inspiration to all of us in the IV community.
You are selfless and humble and these are amongst the most noble qualities a leader can have.
Thanks!
-S
You are an inspiration to all of us in the IV community.
You are selfless and humble and these are amongst the most noble qualities a leader can have.
Thanks!
-S
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gjoe
01-30 05:19 PM
I sent that question in for the debate about 2 weeks ago. Glad it is on the list. I cannot access this link now for some reason
I guess we should use chances like these to get our agenda heard by the people and the govt. There are going to be atleast 3 more presidential debates we should try to get this question asked atleast in a couple of them. We can modify the question to make it more broad, but still keep the focus on legal immigration problems by highlighting it.
PS: You have earned yourself some green ;) I mean rep points from me
I guess we should use chances like these to get our agenda heard by the people and the govt. There are going to be atleast 3 more presidential debates we should try to get this question asked atleast in a couple of them. We can modify the question to make it more broad, but still keep the focus on legal immigration problems by highlighting it.
PS: You have earned yourself some green ;) I mean rep points from me
more...
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srikondoji
10-07 01:09 PM
Hi BECsufferer,
This time i completely disagree with you.
There has been asset bubble in Indian properties due to cheap money.
Read the following excerpt from March 2008.
"� The yen carry trade is a �cheap money� gambit that exploits the extraordinarily low borrowing rates available in Japan. It is notoriously hard to quantify but is understood to have supported a series of the asset bubbles around the world in the past few years, from Indian property to fine wine and art
� Japan's low interest rates, an anomaly in the financial world, result from Japanese central bank monetary policy, which has, Richard Jerram, the Macquarie economist, said, �defied orthodox economic thinking for more than 20 years�
Not just realtors, but banks, Tatats, birlas and to some extent Reliance will fall prey to the folly they made between 2005 and 2007.
They borrowed Billions of dollars for their oversees acquisitions which are yen denominated.
NO wonder why INdian markets are collapsing even though the Indian market is de-coupled.
Hope this explains why there won't be any property value appreciation for next few years in India as well as anywhere on this planet earth.
Sri;
As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.
My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
This time i completely disagree with you.
There has been asset bubble in Indian properties due to cheap money.
Read the following excerpt from March 2008.
"� The yen carry trade is a �cheap money� gambit that exploits the extraordinarily low borrowing rates available in Japan. It is notoriously hard to quantify but is understood to have supported a series of the asset bubbles around the world in the past few years, from Indian property to fine wine and art
� Japan's low interest rates, an anomaly in the financial world, result from Japanese central bank monetary policy, which has, Richard Jerram, the Macquarie economist, said, �defied orthodox economic thinking for more than 20 years�
Not just realtors, but banks, Tatats, birlas and to some extent Reliance will fall prey to the folly they made between 2005 and 2007.
They borrowed Billions of dollars for their oversees acquisitions which are yen denominated.
NO wonder why INdian markets are collapsing even though the Indian market is de-coupled.
Hope this explains why there won't be any property value appreciation for next few years in India as well as anywhere on this planet earth.
Sri;
As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.
My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
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santb1975
06-04 01:00 AM
We only had 27 people who called the rep's so far. We can do better than this
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sanju
09-24 01:46 AM
Ok, I will give you a weak analogy. See how Indian IPOs distribute shares when it is oversubscribed. The same thing goes here. Replace money by applicants and replace investors by countries, and you will get a sense as to why per country quota is implemented. I agree it is hard to digest the per country quota, but it is what it is. It is affirmative action if you will. It requires equality, but gives some buffer to people not properly represented (or run the risk of being overwhelmed by any single country).
You are right, it is very hard to digest, even for you, who seems to support it. And, if I may add, your example it too "complicated" for me. Try giving easy example for me, I am kind a slow, maybe I should get some "preferential treatment". Yes, that's the word, "preferential".
Country quota is NOT affirmative action, nowhere even close. If you are socio-politically dominated by Indian or Chinese, yes, then it is affirmative action. But if you do not come from a place there Indian and Chinese imperial powers have taken over the country, then how are you socio-politically dominated by Indian or Chinese. And if you are not dominated by Indian or Chinese in the country where you came from, then how could it be "like" affarmative action.
Maybe you yet don't know, but Indian and Chinese EB applications cannot vote and they do not have any representation in the US government. So its not that you are "not properly represented" and Indian and Chinese have all the representation. WE ALL HAVE NO REPRESENTATION. Just so that its clear.
Your next argument is that you are "overwhelmed" by Indian and Chinese so there should be country-limits. Well, I can understand that, we are very overwhelming people. You see 40% of the world population gets 14% green card, we tend to become "overwhelming" for other.
Observation: Each time, I reply to each and every part of your post. But you totally ignore what I write. You did not answer whether you think you are equal? inferior? or superior? That is the question. Hope you answer that.
Quota system treats everybody anything but "equal". And this is not just the question of equality, because I am sure you agree that we are equals. It is the question of PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT. You are in the category getting preferential treatment, so you oppose any change, you "create" arguements that you were "promised" a system when you came, and thus any change to the system, before you get your green card would be WRONG and UNFAIR. So you should continue to get that PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT. And PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT to you is NOT WRONG AND UNFAIR. Right?
BTW, hope you liked the You tube video, Frank is really good. I do not want you to go, so that's why I posted the video. Hope it helped you to stick around. Now don't say you have the right to watch it 5 times and I can watch it only once because I am from India and you are ROW :D
Cheers,
You are right, it is very hard to digest, even for you, who seems to support it. And, if I may add, your example it too "complicated" for me. Try giving easy example for me, I am kind a slow, maybe I should get some "preferential treatment". Yes, that's the word, "preferential".
Country quota is NOT affirmative action, nowhere even close. If you are socio-politically dominated by Indian or Chinese, yes, then it is affirmative action. But if you do not come from a place there Indian and Chinese imperial powers have taken over the country, then how are you socio-politically dominated by Indian or Chinese. And if you are not dominated by Indian or Chinese in the country where you came from, then how could it be "like" affarmative action.
Maybe you yet don't know, but Indian and Chinese EB applications cannot vote and they do not have any representation in the US government. So its not that you are "not properly represented" and Indian and Chinese have all the representation. WE ALL HAVE NO REPRESENTATION. Just so that its clear.
Your next argument is that you are "overwhelmed" by Indian and Chinese so there should be country-limits. Well, I can understand that, we are very overwhelming people. You see 40% of the world population gets 14% green card, we tend to become "overwhelming" for other.
Observation: Each time, I reply to each and every part of your post. But you totally ignore what I write. You did not answer whether you think you are equal? inferior? or superior? That is the question. Hope you answer that.
Quota system treats everybody anything but "equal". And this is not just the question of equality, because I am sure you agree that we are equals. It is the question of PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT. You are in the category getting preferential treatment, so you oppose any change, you "create" arguements that you were "promised" a system when you came, and thus any change to the system, before you get your green card would be WRONG and UNFAIR. So you should continue to get that PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT. And PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT to you is NOT WRONG AND UNFAIR. Right?
BTW, hope you liked the You tube video, Frank is really good. I do not want you to go, so that's why I posted the video. Hope it helped you to stick around. Now don't say you have the right to watch it 5 times and I can watch it only once because I am from India and you are ROW :D
Cheers,
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Oli-G
06-16 09:29 PM
Whipped this up last nite.
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dpp
11-06 04:13 PM
I don't think it is correct. There is no requirement in H1B to look for American first, if nobody found then sponsor for H1B. It is there in GC process for labor market check. H1B law is not having tougher provisions to not to misuse it. So, thats that reason, some are misusing. Its like Labor substitution. Previously, there is no law that says you shouldn't substitute labor, but now we have it. It is about changing H1B law to reduce fraud.
But as someone said, increasing H1B fees is not the way of controlling fraud. They should decrease the fees back to $360, just application fee, but correct the H1B law so that only people really need it will get the visas.
The intent of the H1B program is not to bring people in the country in "Anticipatory mode" as you put it. The intent of the H1B program had always been for US employers to hire foreign skilled workers "On-Demand" when no american is willing, qualified or able to do the said job. Prior to 1999, the visa cap was 65000/yr WITHOUT the extra master's degree cap we have now, and still visas were never totally used up for any year, certainly not on the first day. It is only after the advent of the IT consulting companies hoarding visas in "anticipation" of future jobs that the problems started. Without any restrictions on this kind of abuse, no amount of H1 visa increase would be sufficient. They are talking of raising visas to 130,000 right? Based on the FY 2008 applications, those visas would be used up in TWO DAYS!
IMHO, the intent of the H1B program is equally important than just loopholes (or not) in the letter of the law.
But as someone said, increasing H1B fees is not the way of controlling fraud. They should decrease the fees back to $360, just application fee, but correct the H1B law so that only people really need it will get the visas.
The intent of the H1B program is not to bring people in the country in "Anticipatory mode" as you put it. The intent of the H1B program had always been for US employers to hire foreign skilled workers "On-Demand" when no american is willing, qualified or able to do the said job. Prior to 1999, the visa cap was 65000/yr WITHOUT the extra master's degree cap we have now, and still visas were never totally used up for any year, certainly not on the first day. It is only after the advent of the IT consulting companies hoarding visas in "anticipation" of future jobs that the problems started. Without any restrictions on this kind of abuse, no amount of H1 visa increase would be sufficient. They are talking of raising visas to 130,000 right? Based on the FY 2008 applications, those visas would be used up in TWO DAYS!
IMHO, the intent of the H1B program is equally important than just loopholes (or not) in the letter of the law.
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shree772000
10-07 08:43 PM
Almost all Hyderabad house hold has one or more members live in US, who save atleast 15l/year and invest a lot in homeloand which would translate into sustainable stability in AP,India.
Unless US govt. declares bankruptcy, AP real estate would not burst so it would be safe to invest in AP.....
I feel you guys are barking the wrong tree altogether. I agree that there will be a slow down in the real estate market. No question about it. But not the segment you guys are arguing abt. Only 10% of the NRIs can afford a house worth more than 50 Lakhs. I am being conservative here. So the upscale realestate market is not fueled by NRI money. Its the black money in india.
There is a lot of black money in India. Real estate bubble in india is definitely because of that money. It will not correct as much as US for sure!
Unless US govt. declares bankruptcy, AP real estate would not burst so it would be safe to invest in AP.....
I feel you guys are barking the wrong tree altogether. I agree that there will be a slow down in the real estate market. No question about it. But not the segment you guys are arguing abt. Only 10% of the NRIs can afford a house worth more than 50 Lakhs. I am being conservative here. So the upscale realestate market is not fueled by NRI money. Its the black money in india.
There is a lot of black money in India. Real estate bubble in india is definitely because of that money. It will not correct as much as US for sure!
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hebbar77
10-09 11:01 PM
If you are not in india, then you are somewhere to earn more than you do than in india. So investment is safe if you can afford to invest in that property without a loan. If you are taking a loan you are getting ripped off. STOP there.
to me agricultural land is next to investment in gold. agri land always holds value(sale value) or appreciates over time. Always you can get decent return by farming something there. So my belief is you always get 6%+ return on investment over short/long period of time.
city properties are just a ripp off. So get only one property if you want to live for yourself.. Investment of say 50 lacs on a flat(condo), may give you a good rent. But for how long? and what % of interest you pay on that loan? And what will the aging affect be on that flat!!...
that way land | house is better choice!
To me below are investment items first the highest safety + return(decreasing order or preference)
1. gold(other precious metals)
2. treasary bonds../govt assured accounts
2. agri land(either in india or US, in is labor is higher)
3. city independent houses
4. select mutual funds
5. stock market
6. Condos
to me agricultural land is next to investment in gold. agri land always holds value(sale value) or appreciates over time. Always you can get decent return by farming something there. So my belief is you always get 6%+ return on investment over short/long period of time.
city properties are just a ripp off. So get only one property if you want to live for yourself.. Investment of say 50 lacs on a flat(condo), may give you a good rent. But for how long? and what % of interest you pay on that loan? And what will the aging affect be on that flat!!...
that way land | house is better choice!
To me below are investment items first the highest safety + return(decreasing order or preference)
1. gold(other precious metals)
2. treasary bonds../govt assured accounts
2. agri land(either in india or US, in is labor is higher)
3. city independent houses
4. select mutual funds
5. stock market
6. Condos
darslee
07-11 01:58 AM
Great idea. Since our recent flowers also ended up at the veteran's hospital, maybe we should wear yellow ribbons in support of troops?
I am not sure if you are being facetious but I think that is a great idea! :)
I am not sure if you are being facetious but I think that is a great idea! :)
johnwright03
07-30 11:51 AM
Wow...You seem to be a Guru in this field...!!! expert in the lingo too....
Dont even think about it unless you are a quant and have resources that can compete with the Hedge funds. Commodities do not behave like stocks, you need to be able to model prices using multi variate models. Then there is jumps. You should be familiar with jump diffusion/step functions etc. To be able to model these you will need to use a factor model like the Pilipovic model. Even then it will only be an approximation.
Commodities are purchased as futures. Futures are derivatives and you will need to hedge them. A perfect hedge for a future is 1:1 in the spot. Since there is no arb here you will have to use options. To model the price of an option you will have to be a master of Black-Scholes option pricing model or a similar method like monte carlo simulation. Even if you figure all this out you will have to delta hedge. Delta hedging commodity options is very expensive, you will bleed money. Look up Hodges-Nuberger model for delta hedging options on derivatives.
I suggest a book by Daragana Pilipovic called "Energy Risk", buy it and read it. After that if you still feel you can take on hundreds of computers running parallel with teams of quants modelling prices and programs trading algarithimic models; then Good luck!!
Trade stocks as modelling stocks is comparitively easy. Stocks have drift (mu). If you are saturated with stocks look into options and Fixed income. Leave all these complicated stuff to the pros. You have better chance of hitting a jackpot in a casino than making money in trading commodities.
Dont even think about it unless you are a quant and have resources that can compete with the Hedge funds. Commodities do not behave like stocks, you need to be able to model prices using multi variate models. Then there is jumps. You should be familiar with jump diffusion/step functions etc. To be able to model these you will need to use a factor model like the Pilipovic model. Even then it will only be an approximation.
Commodities are purchased as futures. Futures are derivatives and you will need to hedge them. A perfect hedge for a future is 1:1 in the spot. Since there is no arb here you will have to use options. To model the price of an option you will have to be a master of Black-Scholes option pricing model or a similar method like monte carlo simulation. Even if you figure all this out you will have to delta hedge. Delta hedging commodity options is very expensive, you will bleed money. Look up Hodges-Nuberger model for delta hedging options on derivatives.
I suggest a book by Daragana Pilipovic called "Energy Risk", buy it and read it. After that if you still feel you can take on hundreds of computers running parallel with teams of quants modelling prices and programs trading algarithimic models; then Good luck!!
Trade stocks as modelling stocks is comparitively easy. Stocks have drift (mu). If you are saturated with stocks look into options and Fixed income. Leave all these complicated stuff to the pros. You have better chance of hitting a jackpot in a casino than making money in trading commodities.