BharatPremi
12-11 11:17 AM
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=16031
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trueguy
08-12 10:39 PM
EB3 I is going to have a long wait. I had applied for Canadian green card and had received it. At present i have EAD and AP. Is it worthwhile to go into consular processing and work in canada or apply for a blue card or think about Australia. If this sounds okay how should i proceed.
Jose Thomas
How do you get Blue Card. I thought its still under review and not official yet.
Jose Thomas
How do you get Blue Card. I thought its still under review and not official yet.
trevor
01-14 02:39 PM
filed a WoM (writ of Mandamus) in New York..what a joke..FBI Name check delay for 5 years !!!!
Time to wake up FBI/USCIS
Time to wake up FBI/USCIS
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BharatPremi
03-13 12:23 PM
I seriously hope that this is correct even though it doesn't apply to me : (
Anyway, IIRC, in past there have been incidences where VB posted in mumbai Consulate's website actually did not turn out to be true. Couple of years back - after the retrogression - it predicted huge forward movement which 2 days later turned out to be false hope...
so keep your fingers crossed...
: )
That is exactly I was thinking. My first confusion was why the hell people want to check CP dates and create the false thread but then I realize they must not be around/ in the process to realize that CP dates != AOS dates. Some times CP ones equals but not always. Let's hope those equals to AOS dats this time.
Anyway, IIRC, in past there have been incidences where VB posted in mumbai Consulate's website actually did not turn out to be true. Couple of years back - after the retrogression - it predicted huge forward movement which 2 days later turned out to be false hope...
so keep your fingers crossed...
: )
That is exactly I was thinking. My first confusion was why the hell people want to check CP dates and create the false thread but then I realize they must not be around/ in the process to realize that CP dates != AOS dates. Some times CP ones equals but not always. Let's hope those equals to AOS dats this time.
more...
kshitijnt
05-12 04:54 PM
USA has a right to choose who they give green card to but not fool Indian people by swinging visa bulletin by 4 years every now and then. Not by discriminating. There should be some transparency to the process and law should be followed. If USA makes a law that Indians wont get GC in EB, I am happy to note. Can they remove their gloves?
GCard_Dream
01-31 11:21 AM
If you are not using a sub labor and filing 140 in a week or so, there is nothing for you to worry about.
Thanks for the reply.
I am not using substitution labor. I do not condone any one who does it for monetary reasons.
So the rule hasn't taken affect yet huh! I will definitely send my application out in premium processing this week. Just worried that I have passed the 45-day time period :( . Does my I-140 have to be approved before this rule is implemented, or just that my application needs to be filed ?
Thanks for the reply.
I am not using substitution labor. I do not condone any one who does it for monetary reasons.
So the rule hasn't taken affect yet huh! I will definitely send my application out in premium processing this week. Just worried that I have passed the 45-day time period :( . Does my I-140 have to be approved before this rule is implemented, or just that my application needs to be filed ?
more...
ksrk
08-19 01:56 PM
If you are form INDIA then you should say "Mera Barath Mahan" first and then "God Bless America"
Many Congrats!! to you on your American Citizenship Good Luck!!
Well, s/he did say s/he was proud to be an INDIAN-American, didn't s/he? In the order you wanted...
Many Congrats!! to you on your American Citizenship Good Luck!!
Well, s/he did say s/he was proud to be an INDIAN-American, didn't s/he? In the order you wanted...
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snathan
01-17 02:25 PM
^^^^^^^^^
more...
agtexas2007
12-10 10:47 PM
Can you tell me what do i have to do for WOM. Do i have to hire a attorney or i can do myself?
When GCSOON-Ihope becomes GC-IgotIt!
Guys, guess what I am holding in my hand? Yes, that bit of plastic, object of our fantasies �.and nightmares. After filing Writ of Mandamus on November 1st, things went amazingly quickly and smoothly: on December 1st, the US attorney gave confirmation that the case has been approved and I received the card in the mail on 12/07.
What did I feel then? Really indescribable�Happy? It goes way beyond that.
I feel more relieved than anything else, like if I had a ton of lead off my shoulders�
May my story inspire, give hope and faith to all of you guys who are so depressed at the moment because of what happened, or did not happen should I say, in that shameful Congress.
As you will see, I had my head in a brick wall more than once. More than once, I was devastated and, still, I never gave up and made it through.
So, please, enjoy the holidays: as long as there is life, there is hope.
I know something about it:
Come here in 1993 as a student on F1 visa. Graduate and got Work Permit (OPT).
Find dream job in dream company. Hired directly by CEO himself.
Company loves me and applies right away for H1 and then Labor Cert.
Life is beautiful. The start of the American Dream. Not for long.
Attorney has been working for company for years. Always successfully.
Picks me for his first failure: screws up completely.
H1 denied. Labor Cert denied. Company gets mad: attorney is fired.
OPT runs out: company still loves me but�I am now out of status and�fired too.
Welcome to America. Life has turned dark. The start of my American Nightmare.
I am disgusted. Decide to go back to my home country (France).
I miss California. Find new company that loves me: apply for H1 again (this time, I am paying all fees, out of my meager savings).
H1 is approved, got stamp at embassy in Paris. I am back. Life is beautiful again.
Not for long. Exactly 2 hours (no kidding).
Find out that company is a sweat-shop and boss is a crook.
Pays me half (yes, half) what he was supposed to.
Go to INS to complain: �If you are not happy, go back to your home country�.
I swear that it is exactly what I am told.
Consult attorneys for a possible lawsuit: � Alas, your situation happens more often than you can imagine. Many unscrupulous employers use and abuse of would-be immigrants like you. Don�t waste your time and money in a lawsuit, just find yourself a new job�and be more careful this time�.
I am broke. Can�t even go back �home� and anyway I don�t want to.
Not with just my tail between my legs for the second time.
Home is here. I want my American Dream and I will get it, no matter what.
Decide to swallow my pride and endure the humiliation until I can find new employer willing to sponsor new H1 and pay all fees. I just can�t afford anything as I am hardly surviving.
Employer wants to fire me: �you are always complaining about the money�.
I have to threaten him (yes I did) to report his company to Dept. of Labor (most his employees are illegals and as abused as I am, not getting paid for overtime and so on�).
Imagine in what kind of atmosphere I am working�but I need this job to remain legal until I can find something else.
For sure, I will be out of there within a couple months at the most.
Don�t know yet that this nightmare will last�2 years. Still can�t believe it.
Had I known, I would have fled the first day, no matter what.
In my specialty, jobs are not easy to find.
Not to mention that this time, I have to be very �choosy��
Companies that I approach:
a) don�t want to hear about immigration or
b) don�t want to pay attorney fees or
c) don�t want to pay at least prevailing wage or
d) all of the above
All doors seem to be closed.
I have never felt that bad in my life: go see the doctor.
�You have all the symptoms of someone who is having�a nervous depression.
Do you want me to refer you to a good psy who could help you?�
No, thanks. I know why I am sick.
Finally find new company that loves me: apply for new H1 and they pay all fees.
H1 approved.
This time, I am holding my breath. We are now in December 2000. Seven years since I first came in the US. Time flies�and no GC in sight.
Job is nice, company is nice. Recovering from depression.
Boss loves me: decides to start for me RIR Labor in�.May 2001.
Yes, one month after that damn month of April 2001. You know what I mean.
Six months of advertising.
PD is January 2002.
Labor Cert approved �in July 2004. Concurrent filing I-140/I-485 in August 2004.
Get EAD. FP in September 2004.
Things change: company is now going down. Boss still loves me but�lays me off.
(Re)(Re) Start of my American Nightmare?
Attorney says: �Don�t worry (!!!) Employer loves you. Won�t revoke I-140. GC is for future job. Find new H1 job to maintain status and see what happens�.
This time, I am lucky (!) and find right away new H1 job. Company is OK, job is OK.
Later, previous company nicely recovers: got rehired!
Only thing: I will have to pay all fees from now on. Don�t care. Back on the right track.
Do Medical in April 2005.
I-140 approved in May 2005�but visas are now �Unavailable�. Nothing to worry about.
October is around the corner and new numbers will be available, right?
Just a few more months and I will have my GC. Wrong.
October bulletin comes out. EB3 World is back to March 2001 (PD is 01/2002).
I swear that I almost s..t in my pants. When is too much�just too much?
How much more frustration and anguish can I endure? More, much more.
By rage and stress, I pack up an extra 20 lbs in just a few months.
Most people lose weight when they are under extreme stress and/or depression, I do the opposite. I am now 40 lbs overweight.
Second EAD. FP again in October 2005. Life is paced by visa bulletins�
September 2006 bulletin comes out: EB3 World has now passed my PD.
I am holding my breath again. Rightly so, for the umpteenth time.
Third EAD.
Wait 2 weeks and start inquiring about the status of my application.
Call so-called �Customer service�: as usual they know jack s..t.
�Your application is still pending�. Thanks, I already knew that.
Make Infopass appointment at Los Angeles downtown office.
�Sir, I can�t tell you anything specific because your case is at the Laguna Niguel office.
Contact them at: CSC-XII@dhs.gov�
E-mail #1 on 09/18: (�) Status of my case? (�)
Response on 09/27: �the I-485 at question is still pending FBI name check clearance.
Once the file has been cleared by FBI, it will be adjudicated. The service has no control on how long it takes FBI to clear the case�.
E-mail #2 on 09/27: (�) When was that initiated? (�)
Response on 10/02: (�) On or about 08/19/2004. (�)
This time, I surprise myself: I am one more time devastated but remain strangely calm.
Even laugh about it. Nervously. Too much is just too much.
I had heard about that Name Check aberration before but had ignored it.
Like most people involved in that GC mess, I refused to worry in advance.
One bridge to cross at the time, please.
Weirdly enough, I am now almost relieved. Why? Because for the first time ever, I can be proactive and I CAN ACT!
I call my lawyer and tell her about those 2 e-mails: �That�s good enough to file Writ of Mandamus. That summarizes the whole situation, we don�t need anything else�.
WOM is filed on November 1st.
(I requested FOIPA and contacted Senators, President, Vice-President etc, etc�
only later just in case we would have needed more ammunitions).
After that, things go fast:
11/ 29: without any warning (!), LUD: �Your card has been ordered�.
12/01: confirmation from the Assistant US Attorney that my case has been approved.
12/04 LUD: �Your case has been approved�.
(So, they notify you that the card has been ordered�before notifying that the case has been approved�).
12/05: receive Approval Notice in the mail and my attorney indicates that she will then dismiss the Mandamus complaint.
12/07: receive the Magic Card in the mail (regular mail, even not certified, unbelievable�).
What a timing! Could I dream of a better Christmas Gift?
Who said Papa Noel/Santa or Banta Claus/Little Red Riding Hood did not exist?
:) ;) :) ;) :) ;) :) ;) :)
When GCSOON-Ihope becomes GC-IgotIt!
Guys, guess what I am holding in my hand? Yes, that bit of plastic, object of our fantasies �.and nightmares. After filing Writ of Mandamus on November 1st, things went amazingly quickly and smoothly: on December 1st, the US attorney gave confirmation that the case has been approved and I received the card in the mail on 12/07.
What did I feel then? Really indescribable�Happy? It goes way beyond that.
I feel more relieved than anything else, like if I had a ton of lead off my shoulders�
May my story inspire, give hope and faith to all of you guys who are so depressed at the moment because of what happened, or did not happen should I say, in that shameful Congress.
As you will see, I had my head in a brick wall more than once. More than once, I was devastated and, still, I never gave up and made it through.
So, please, enjoy the holidays: as long as there is life, there is hope.
I know something about it:
Come here in 1993 as a student on F1 visa. Graduate and got Work Permit (OPT).
Find dream job in dream company. Hired directly by CEO himself.
Company loves me and applies right away for H1 and then Labor Cert.
Life is beautiful. The start of the American Dream. Not for long.
Attorney has been working for company for years. Always successfully.
Picks me for his first failure: screws up completely.
H1 denied. Labor Cert denied. Company gets mad: attorney is fired.
OPT runs out: company still loves me but�I am now out of status and�fired too.
Welcome to America. Life has turned dark. The start of my American Nightmare.
I am disgusted. Decide to go back to my home country (France).
I miss California. Find new company that loves me: apply for H1 again (this time, I am paying all fees, out of my meager savings).
H1 is approved, got stamp at embassy in Paris. I am back. Life is beautiful again.
Not for long. Exactly 2 hours (no kidding).
Find out that company is a sweat-shop and boss is a crook.
Pays me half (yes, half) what he was supposed to.
Go to INS to complain: �If you are not happy, go back to your home country�.
I swear that it is exactly what I am told.
Consult attorneys for a possible lawsuit: � Alas, your situation happens more often than you can imagine. Many unscrupulous employers use and abuse of would-be immigrants like you. Don�t waste your time and money in a lawsuit, just find yourself a new job�and be more careful this time�.
I am broke. Can�t even go back �home� and anyway I don�t want to.
Not with just my tail between my legs for the second time.
Home is here. I want my American Dream and I will get it, no matter what.
Decide to swallow my pride and endure the humiliation until I can find new employer willing to sponsor new H1 and pay all fees. I just can�t afford anything as I am hardly surviving.
Employer wants to fire me: �you are always complaining about the money�.
I have to threaten him (yes I did) to report his company to Dept. of Labor (most his employees are illegals and as abused as I am, not getting paid for overtime and so on�).
Imagine in what kind of atmosphere I am working�but I need this job to remain legal until I can find something else.
For sure, I will be out of there within a couple months at the most.
Don�t know yet that this nightmare will last�2 years. Still can�t believe it.
Had I known, I would have fled the first day, no matter what.
In my specialty, jobs are not easy to find.
Not to mention that this time, I have to be very �choosy��
Companies that I approach:
a) don�t want to hear about immigration or
b) don�t want to pay attorney fees or
c) don�t want to pay at least prevailing wage or
d) all of the above
All doors seem to be closed.
I have never felt that bad in my life: go see the doctor.
�You have all the symptoms of someone who is having�a nervous depression.
Do you want me to refer you to a good psy who could help you?�
No, thanks. I know why I am sick.
Finally find new company that loves me: apply for new H1 and they pay all fees.
H1 approved.
This time, I am holding my breath. We are now in December 2000. Seven years since I first came in the US. Time flies�and no GC in sight.
Job is nice, company is nice. Recovering from depression.
Boss loves me: decides to start for me RIR Labor in�.May 2001.
Yes, one month after that damn month of April 2001. You know what I mean.
Six months of advertising.
PD is January 2002.
Labor Cert approved �in July 2004. Concurrent filing I-140/I-485 in August 2004.
Get EAD. FP in September 2004.
Things change: company is now going down. Boss still loves me but�lays me off.
(Re)(Re) Start of my American Nightmare?
Attorney says: �Don�t worry (!!!) Employer loves you. Won�t revoke I-140. GC is for future job. Find new H1 job to maintain status and see what happens�.
This time, I am lucky (!) and find right away new H1 job. Company is OK, job is OK.
Later, previous company nicely recovers: got rehired!
Only thing: I will have to pay all fees from now on. Don�t care. Back on the right track.
Do Medical in April 2005.
I-140 approved in May 2005�but visas are now �Unavailable�. Nothing to worry about.
October is around the corner and new numbers will be available, right?
Just a few more months and I will have my GC. Wrong.
October bulletin comes out. EB3 World is back to March 2001 (PD is 01/2002).
I swear that I almost s..t in my pants. When is too much�just too much?
How much more frustration and anguish can I endure? More, much more.
By rage and stress, I pack up an extra 20 lbs in just a few months.
Most people lose weight when they are under extreme stress and/or depression, I do the opposite. I am now 40 lbs overweight.
Second EAD. FP again in October 2005. Life is paced by visa bulletins�
September 2006 bulletin comes out: EB3 World has now passed my PD.
I am holding my breath again. Rightly so, for the umpteenth time.
Third EAD.
Wait 2 weeks and start inquiring about the status of my application.
Call so-called �Customer service�: as usual they know jack s..t.
�Your application is still pending�. Thanks, I already knew that.
Make Infopass appointment at Los Angeles downtown office.
�Sir, I can�t tell you anything specific because your case is at the Laguna Niguel office.
Contact them at: CSC-XII@dhs.gov�
E-mail #1 on 09/18: (�) Status of my case? (�)
Response on 09/27: �the I-485 at question is still pending FBI name check clearance.
Once the file has been cleared by FBI, it will be adjudicated. The service has no control on how long it takes FBI to clear the case�.
E-mail #2 on 09/27: (�) When was that initiated? (�)
Response on 10/02: (�) On or about 08/19/2004. (�)
This time, I surprise myself: I am one more time devastated but remain strangely calm.
Even laugh about it. Nervously. Too much is just too much.
I had heard about that Name Check aberration before but had ignored it.
Like most people involved in that GC mess, I refused to worry in advance.
One bridge to cross at the time, please.
Weirdly enough, I am now almost relieved. Why? Because for the first time ever, I can be proactive and I CAN ACT!
I call my lawyer and tell her about those 2 e-mails: �That�s good enough to file Writ of Mandamus. That summarizes the whole situation, we don�t need anything else�.
WOM is filed on November 1st.
(I requested FOIPA and contacted Senators, President, Vice-President etc, etc�
only later just in case we would have needed more ammunitions).
After that, things go fast:
11/ 29: without any warning (!), LUD: �Your card has been ordered�.
12/01: confirmation from the Assistant US Attorney that my case has been approved.
12/04 LUD: �Your case has been approved�.
(So, they notify you that the card has been ordered�before notifying that the case has been approved�).
12/05: receive Approval Notice in the mail and my attorney indicates that she will then dismiss the Mandamus complaint.
12/07: receive the Magic Card in the mail (regular mail, even not certified, unbelievable�).
What a timing! Could I dream of a better Christmas Gift?
Who said Papa Noel/Santa or Banta Claus/Little Red Riding Hood did not exist?
:) ;) :) ;) :) ;) :) ;) :)
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Leo07
11-18 01:49 PM
I'm thinking of buying Atlas America Comprehensive with $100 deductible for my Mom. It's coming out to be $991.00 for 6 months approximately.
Friends, if you have any complaints about Atlas or much favorable things to say about other insurance companies, Please suggest me.
Best!
We recently got the Atlas America Insurance with 0 deductible and got two visits done for my father(chest infection). Got antibiotics prescribed, blood test done, physical checkup done. Went very smooth, no payments at all.
Said that, someone who has tested a Emergency visit or a Specialist visit or an Intensive care visit should be able to give us a better idea of who fares better.
Till date, other then a PCPs visit, I have not heard any good reviews for any insurance cos(agents).
And then there are so many agents/sub-agents floating around, that even the genuine ones dont seem so genuine.
We should have a AM/S&P kinda rating system for Visitors insurance.
Friends, if you have any complaints about Atlas or much favorable things to say about other insurance companies, Please suggest me.
Best!
We recently got the Atlas America Insurance with 0 deductible and got two visits done for my father(chest infection). Got antibiotics prescribed, blood test done, physical checkup done. Went very smooth, no payments at all.
Said that, someone who has tested a Emergency visit or a Specialist visit or an Intensive care visit should be able to give us a better idea of who fares better.
Till date, other then a PCPs visit, I have not heard any good reviews for any insurance cos(agents).
And then there are so many agents/sub-agents floating around, that even the genuine ones dont seem so genuine.
We should have a AM/S&P kinda rating system for Visitors insurance.
more...
chanduv23
03-12 10:44 PM
enjoying life after the GC what else??!!!
answer with complete honesty, if YOU got your green card today, would YOU ever be involved in IV again? except maybe when you want some answers during your naturalization stage?
:)
naive....naive.....
Actually some of them are still as committed as they were prior to getting GC. waldenpond still runs the organization with the same vigour. franklin and others have got their GCs but still stand as pillars for IV.
answer with complete honesty, if YOU got your green card today, would YOU ever be involved in IV again? except maybe when you want some answers during your naturalization stage?
:)
naive....naive.....
Actually some of them are still as committed as they were prior to getting GC. waldenpond still runs the organization with the same vigour. franklin and others have got their GCs but still stand as pillars for IV.
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xyz2005
07-18 11:32 AM
07/02: 8 am
NSC
Status: Unknown
NSC
Status: Unknown
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wawa
10-03 07:48 PM
Hi Smartboy75/Prince7,
Any updates? Have you received the mailed notice? I haven't received this notice so far.
Thanks
Any updates? Have you received the mailed notice? I haven't received this notice so far.
Thanks
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gc04
04-29 05:02 AM
just contributed $100 via pay pal. great job IV, trying to convince for friends for more funds.
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fatjoe
10-01 03:48 PM
It would take at least 45 days. You will always get about a month's notice for the interview. As per my case, I got a notice on March 10, 2009 that my case was transferred to NBC and that I would have to attend an interview at local office. I got the interview notice around May 15th for the interview scheduled on June 25th.
Hard and Soft LUD recently stating case moved to local office. Does anybody has any idea on timeframe for interview call? Dates being current I want it asap.
Hard and Soft LUD recently stating case moved to local office. Does anybody has any idea on timeframe for interview call? Dates being current I want it asap.
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GCneeded
12-15 04:29 PM
Posted my story and highlighted our cause.
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kaisersose
03-13 10:48 AM
I might be wrong, but I think EB2 India came only uptil April 2004.
And the next month (July) EB2 India became current. That is when visa numbers were issued to already pcoessed Sep 2004 cases and approved.
And the next month (July) EB2 India became current. That is when visa numbers were issued to already pcoessed Sep 2004 cases and approved.
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viva
02-05 05:57 PM
I know you are not threatening to leave. But eventually some one will. It always happens when one or other item is included or excluded from agenda.
Anyways, this isnt about looking weak or strong against anti-immigrants. That is really not the issue here.
Its about how much we can have in our list of items. There is only so much anyone can do. Forget about us, even bigger organizations have priorities in order. Immigration Voice also has to have a priority. We cannot talk to anyone about fixing the H4 issues before the issues of retrogression are talked about. And we cannot talk about ALL OF THEM because there is room for only so much to talk about. There is a limit on everything. Limit on how much funds we have, limit on how much political capital does our lobbyist spend on our organization with lawmakers, limit on how much leverage the lawmaker uses to sponsor an amendment for us. No one has unlimited capacity to get things achieved. So in that sense, H4 issues really cannot be on the list. And as far as "nothing is happening, let's get temporary relief and let's not fight for more numbers" idea is concerned, we are already doing that by trying to get 485 filing provision done in next few days as a temporary relief. Now tell me, how is that not tied to H4s. EVERY SINGLE ITEM on our goals benefits H4 spouses indirectly. Including the short term goals of IV.
Logic - Do not get disheartened!!!!! IV will thrive.. Quality in membership is better than quantity.
Anyways, this isnt about looking weak or strong against anti-immigrants. That is really not the issue here.
Its about how much we can have in our list of items. There is only so much anyone can do. Forget about us, even bigger organizations have priorities in order. Immigration Voice also has to have a priority. We cannot talk to anyone about fixing the H4 issues before the issues of retrogression are talked about. And we cannot talk about ALL OF THEM because there is room for only so much to talk about. There is a limit on everything. Limit on how much funds we have, limit on how much political capital does our lobbyist spend on our organization with lawmakers, limit on how much leverage the lawmaker uses to sponsor an amendment for us. No one has unlimited capacity to get things achieved. So in that sense, H4 issues really cannot be on the list. And as far as "nothing is happening, let's get temporary relief and let's not fight for more numbers" idea is concerned, we are already doing that by trying to get 485 filing provision done in next few days as a temporary relief. Now tell me, how is that not tied to H4s. EVERY SINGLE ITEM on our goals benefits H4 spouses indirectly. Including the short term goals of IV.
Logic - Do not get disheartened!!!!! IV will thrive.. Quality in membership is better than quantity.
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thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
unchew
06-09 11:43 PM
discualify theeemmm! You said no mods... that way I would have less competition! (j/k) :P
jsb
11-13 09:03 AM
Why do you think that i was 'surprised'?? I was just making a point that this policy was absurd!
EAD is only an interim authorization to work until decision on your application is made. It is not a permanent authroization to work. Think of it, if you could not work unless someone has approved your application.
EAD is only an interim authorization to work until decision on your application is made. It is not a permanent authroization to work. Think of it, if you could not work unless someone has approved your application.